The International Fertilizer Manufacturers Association (IFA) report “Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2026-2030”, recently published, gathers information on the global fertilizer market in the medium term.

The IFA report considers the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to pose a significant risk to the global fertilizer market, as it affects both finished fertilizers and the raw materials and energy needed to produce them. The most vulnerable products are urea (approximately 34 percent of global trade passes through the strait), sulfur (49 percent), ammonia (23 percent), and MAP+DAP (18 percent). Therefore, IFA presents different scenarios depending on the duration of the conflict.

In its first scenario, with a short-term end to the season, IFA forecasts that global fertilizer consumption in terms of nutrients will increase by 3 percent between the 2025/26 and 2030/31 growing seasons, rising from 207 to 214 million tons of nutrients. Specifically, nitrogen (N) consumption will increase by 4 percent, while phosphorus (P2O5) and potassium (K2O) consumption will increase by 2 percent.


Link to the document on the IFA website: https://cms.ifastat.org/media/pptlwwda/2026-medium-term-fertilizer-outlook-report.pdf